Beyond the Tories: How Reform UK is Redefining the Centre-Right
The destruction of the Tories will open an interesting new space on the British centre-right
With just a few weeks to go before the General Election, it’s increasingly looking like the Conservatives are in for a serious drubbing, likely being left with less than 100 seats. On 13th June Yougov released a voting intention poll showing that Reform is polling 19%, one point ahead of the Conservative Party which is polling 18%. While it is important to mention that this is just one poll and the difference is within the margin of error, it is fair to say that this is an exciting development in British politics reminiscent of when Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party won the 2019 European elections, resulting in the resignation of Theresa May.
The astonishing rise of Reform has been a nightmare for the Tories, who seem to have accepted defeat and are now appealing to voters not to give Labour a supermajority. Reform’s rise, however, also presents a threat to Labour as both parties are competing for 2019 Tory voters, most of whom voted for Brexit. According to Yougov voting intention, since Rishi Sunak called the General Election back in May Labour has sunk from 47% to 37%, whereas the Tories have sunk from 21% to 18%. This demonstrates that the British public increasingly dislikes both main parties and that a growing number of voters are now considering voting for Reform, which according to Yougov has surged from 12% to 19%.
With 19% of the vote, Reform UK can win over a dozen seats and present itself as a serious and genuine challenge to both Labour and the Conservatives. With Reform ahead of the Tories, Sunak and his ministers will no longer be able to say: “A vote for Reform is a vote for Labour”.
In the aftermath of the General Election, a total wipeout of the Conservative Party will create an exciting new space on the centre-right of British politics. And the most prominent voice in that space will be Nigel Farage and the Reform Party which will command greater authority from within Parliament, opposing and voting against Labour legislation.
To some extent, the weakness and moderation of the rump Tory Party will allow Reform to set the agenda for the British Right and decide the issues it will campaign on. Many suspect that Farage will launch a Reform takeover of the weakened Conservative Party. Farage has even suggested that this is his intention.
"I would be prepared to lead the centre-right in this country; a centre rcentre-rightight that stands up for small business, a centre-right that believes in borders, a centre-right that isn't scared about standing up for the British people," he said.
So, what exactly will this new centre-right look like? Will it take the form of a new unified party under Farage’s leadership? Or will it be a looser coalition between Reform and like-minded Conservatives? Whichever form it takes I imagine it will be more nationalist, with a greater focus on borders and national security. Advocating from the opposition benches for the UK to leave the ECHR and UN Refugee Convention will likely be the first aim of this new centre-right alliance, with those opposing being excluded
The new centre-right alliance will likely need to exorcise the globalist One Nation group of Tories, which has caused Britain so much grief over the last 14 years. Gone will be the David Cameron and Theresa May-style Tories praising the benefits of untrammelled free trade with the EU and China. Instead, there will be a greater focus on protecting our domestic industries and restricting foreign ownership of our assets and utilities. Instead of championing Net-Zero, there will be a greater emphasis on backing British energy production.
Crafting a pro-growth economic strategy and a viable plan for reducing taxes will be a priority for the new centre-right in opposition. With Labour planning £8 billion in tax increases, a strong opposition will be needed to stand up for those worst affected by government failure and to present an alternative model that grows the economy and allows people to keep more of their own money.
Establishing an evidence-based plan for health and social care will also likely be an aim of the centre-right alliance. Labour is too wedded to the current NHS system and lacks the ambition to fix social care with a new funding model. If the centre-right campaigns heavily for reform with a sensible plan, they will likely smash Labour in the next election.
For Reform, the objectives of the 2024 General Election are to win seats and build up a large enough voter base in preparation for the next General Election, likely to be held in 2029. From that point, a rejuvenated centre-right alliance can launch a proper challenge against Labour.
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