Xi’s military purge in China sparks fears of war over Taiwan
President Xi Jinping is believed to be preparing for war over Taiwan by purging members of the military unwilling or hesitant to fight, analysts have claimed.
On December 29th last year, Xi sacked nine senior officers, with a senior fellow at the Gatestone Institute, Gordon Wang, suggesting that he was targeting officers who are hesitant about going to war. This shift has set off alarm bells for military analysts who believe that China could be preparing for an invasion of Taiwan, which could draw in military powers such as Japan and the United States into a potentially global conflict.
Such focus on China from military analysts follows from the recent general election in Taiwan in which the winner, Lai-Ching-te, was congratulated by world leaders. This has greatly angered the Chinese government, which claims sovereignty over the self-governing island despite never having ruled there. President Xi Jinping has talked openly about “re-unifying” Taiwan with mainland China and has not ruled out the use of force in achieving that aim. The broader context of worsening cross-strait tensions and Chinese aggression both against Taiwan and other neighbouring countries has led to a military build-up, with both sides engaged in an arms race.
Clashes between China and Japan over the Senkaku islands, fighting with India over the Galwan Valley, as well as disputes with numerous countries over control of the South China Sea have given many the impression that China is seeking to expand its territory. Fears were further raised when last September China launched its largest-ever maritime war simulation.
There are, however, differing opinions about the likelihood of a conflict, with some believing Xi has become more cautious since observing Russia’s fraught attempt to annex Ukraine. Others, such as China expert Gordon Chang, observe China’s aggressive posture and make comparisons to the 1930s lead-up to World War Two.
He said: "Remember, in the 1930s, there were separate wars that merged into what we now call World War II.”
"The same dynamics exist today, and it's entirely possible, and some people can even argue that it's probable that these will merge into a global conflict."
Additionally, there are further 1930s comparisons to be drawn regarding China’s internal politics. In 1934, for example, Adolph Hitler, similarly purged Nazi leaders, ordering the elite SS unit to murder Ernst Röhm and others involved in the paramilitary SA organization. Five years later, with the entirety of Germany under his totalitarian control, Hitler ordered the invasion of Poland, triggering the Second World War. Similarly, Xi Jinping may be purging military leaders to establish his full control over the People’s Liberation Army in preparation for a full-scale war over Taiwan, which he views as a wayward province and a challenge to Chinese sovereignty.
By looking at the world’s reaction to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Xi can imagine the response China might face. The effects of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be far-reaching and have a devastating effect on the world economy, disturbing international shipping and likely resulting in global sanctions and boycotts against China. Most worrying, however, would be the possibility of an unprecedented confrontation between two nuclear powers if the United States comes to Taiwan’s defence.
Overall, whether Xi’s purge of the Chinese military signals a potential war is still not entirely clear. But from looking at China’s warlike actions many experts around the world are beginning to fear the worst.