How could Reform UK shape this year's election?
The insurgent populist party has the potential to make 2024 a battle of ideas
In the dramatic landscape of British politics, Reform UK has emerged as a distinct force advocating for a radical shift in the way the country is governed. Founded by Nigel Farage, the Brexit Party - as it was formerly named - positions itself as a party committed to challenging the status quo, prioritizing individual freedoms, and championing a more streamlined government. At its core, Reform UK embodies a philosophy that resonates with those disillusioned by traditional party politics. The party’s emphasis on individual liberty and limited government resonates with voters tired of bureaucratic red tape and state overreach. In a world where personal freedoms are increasingly under scrutiny, Reform UK presents itself as a beacon for those yearning for a more libertarian approach to governance.
One of the party’s key tenets is its commitment to a smaller, more efficient government. Reform UK argues that reducing the size of the state can lead to a more responsive and accountable political system. The party advocates for cutting unnecessary regulations and bureaucratic hurdles, which it sees as impediments to economic growth and individual prosperity.
Economically, Reform UK is to the right of most British voters, championing free-market principles associated with Thatcherite classical liberalism. The party believes that fostering a business-friendly environment is essential for job creation and overall economic success. It calls for a departure from the heavy-handed government interventions often witnessed in sectors such as healthcare and education, favoring market-driven solutions that empower individuals and encourage competition.
One of the party’s boldest proposals is its call for a “People’s Constitution”. Reform UK asserts that the current political system is outdated and detached from the needs of the people. It advocates for a constitutional convention to be led by citizens rather than politicians, aiming to create a document that reflects the values and aspirations of the population. This proposal, while ambitious, speaks to the desire for a more direct and participatory democracy.
But while Reform’s libertarian populist proposals may be appealing to disillusioned voters, what really appeals to them is the party’s tough stance on immigration as well as the possible return of its founder Nigel Farage. According to leading political operator James Frayne, who polled public attitudes before Christmas, some 43 per cent of those planning to vote Conservative at the next election - and a third of all voters and a quarter of all Labour voters - declare themselves open to voting for a party led by Nigel Farage. In a Sunday Telegraph article, Frayne also noted that voters agree with Farage of policy, particularly immigration and political correctness. According to Frayne’s polling, 77 per cent of those planning to vote conservative agree with his view that immigration is too high and 77 per cent of Conservatives agree with him that there is too much political correctness.1 Critically, Frayne argues, Farage can present himself as the “change” candidate. In comparison to Sunak and Starmer who both lack a common touch, Farage’s populist style and common appeal, bolstered by his GB News show and appearance on “I’m a Celebrity”, mean that he and Reform have the ability to win over Red Wall swing voters who have been put off by the Conservatives since 2019. To quote former MEP Patrick O’Flynn, “…on the right, I don’t think there’s a communicator as good or as seasoned as Nigel Farage.”
Currently polling at around 11 per cent in the polls, Reform UK is widely expected to cost the Tories scores of seats at the next election, handing Labour a whopping 360 seat majority.2 “They harm the Conservatives more now than Ukip did in 2015 because the post-Brexit Tories have a lot more ‘Ukippy’ voters – who they picked up in 2017 and 2019,” said Robert Ford, a professor of political science at the University of Manchester who is one of Britain’s foremost experts on the behavior of British voters.3
In terms of how this shapes the election, the rise of Reform UK to its current place in the polls provides a much needed challenge to the Convervative Party who have consistently failed to deliver on their promises on tax and immigration. Without Reform it is easy to imagine a general election fought over stale debates around who is more likeable or competent. At a glance, both Tories and Labour seem to have almost identical proposals. Both parties also seem to support the continued high-tax, high-immigration, high-debt, low productivity status quo. Additionally, were Reform led by Nigel Farage - already the honorary president and Reform’s largest shareholder - to become more involved in the campaign, then support across the country could increase to 15 per cent or more. This happened in 2019 when the Brexit Party won the European Elections in the UK, winning 30.5 per cent of the vote - over 5 million votes. If a repeat of this were to happen in 2024 then the consequence would be a dramatic change, possibly pushing the Conservative Party out of power for good.
It is yet to be seen how Reform UK will shape the 2024 General Election. But if they can inject new ideas into the debate and challenge establishment orthodoxies then that can only be a good thing.
Voters want a real revolutionary to stop the boats - and it's not Nigel Farage (telegraph.co.uk)
Misery for Rishi as poll shows Labour 24 POINTS ahead - enough for a massive 360 majority - while separate survey shows Reform UK leapfrogging Lib Dems amid buzz about Nigel Farage comeback (msn.com)
‘More harm than Ukip’: Reform UK’s threat to the Conservatives | Reform UK | The Guardian